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SSRN-Does Voting Technology Affect Election Outcomes? Touch-screen Voting and the 2004 Presidential Election by David Card, Enrico Moretti
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Does Voting Technology Affect Election Outcomes? Touch-screen Voting and the 2004 Presidential Election
DAVID CARD University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)ENRICO MORETTI University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
May 2005
NBER Working Paper No. W11309
Abstract:
Supporters of touch-screen voting claim it is a highly reliable voting technology, while a growing number of critics argue that paperless electronic voting systems are vulnerable to fraud. In this paper we use county-level data on voting technologies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections to test whether voting technology affects electoral outcomes. We first show that there is a positive correlation between use of touch-screen voting and the level of electoral support for George Bush. This is true in models that compare the 2000-2004 changes in vote shares between adopting and non-adopting counties within a state, after controlling for income, demographic composition, and other factors. Although small, the effect could have been large enough to influence the final results in some closely contested states. While on the surface this pattern would appear to be consistent with allegations of voting irregularities, a closer examination suggests this interpretation is incorrect. If irregularities did take place, they would be most likely in counties that could potentially affect statewide election totals, or in counties where election officials had incentives to affect the results. Contrary to this prediction, we find no evidence that touch-screen voting had a larger effect in swing states, or in states with a Republican Secretary of State. Touch-screen voting could also indirectly affect vote shares by influencing the relative turnout of different groups. We find that the adoption of touch-screen voting has a negative effect on estimated turnout rates, controlling for state effects and a variety of county-level controls. This effect is larger in counties with a higher fraction of Hispanic residents (who tend to favor Democrats) but not in counties with more African Americans (who are overwhelmingly Democrat voters). Models for the adoption of touch-screen voting suggest it was more likely to be used in counties with a higher fraction of Hispanic and Black residents, especially in swing states. Nevertheless, the impact of non-random adoption patterns on vote shares is small.
JEL Classifications: H0, J0
Working Paper Series
Suggested Citation
Card, David E. and Moretti, Enrico, "Does Voting Technology Affect Election Outcomes? Touch-screen Voting and the 2004 Presidential Election"
(May 2005).
NBER Working Paper No. W11309. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=721084
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DAVID
CARD
(Contact Author)
Email address for DAVID
CARD
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics
Room 3880
Berkeley
, CA
94720-3880
United States
510-642-5222 (Phone)
510-643-7042 (Fax)
(No e-mail address available for DAVID
CARD
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
P.O. Box 7240
D-53072 Bonn
Germany
(No e-mail address available for DAVID
CARD
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge
, MA
02138
United States
Contact Information for
ENRICO
MORETTI
Email address for ENRICO
MORETTI
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics
549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley
, CA
94720-3880
United States
(No e-mail address available for ENRICO
MORETTI
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge
, MA
02138
United States
(No e-mail address available for ENRICO
MORETTI
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
P.O. Box 7240
D-53072 Bonn
Germany
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